分类： tetey

"Thursday will be a fixed game day, paying attention to the entertainment innovation brought by game technology and experience iteration. Welcome to contribute and communicate. Please see the end of the article for contact;For more game cases and technology application research, please pay attention to the brand account of Dongxi Entertainment Game Group.“

Technical development has always been an important force leading the iteration of game products. With the more extensive application of AI technology in the game industry, new game tracks are gradually bred.

Recently, Hidden Door, an American startup company, announced its first product-Hidden Door, a social AIGC narrative platform, and announced that it had completed the financing of US$ 2 million, which was led by the European venture capital fund Northzone, followed by funds such as Makers Fund and Brooklyn Bridge Ventures, and Roblox CTO Dan Sturman also participated as an angel investor.

Hidden Door is a narrative game platform based on AIGC-related technologies. Through AI natural language generation technology, it stimulates the potential of players’ story creation and allows many players to take risks in stories aided by AI.

Hilary Mason, CEO of Hidden Door, said, "This project is mainly to create game narratives together, establish social connections among players, and enable anyone to create unique stories. The challenge is how to develop an AI system, which can not only allow AI to create with players, but also ensure the diversity and security of stories. "

Compared with game design, AI technology and algorithm are more critical factors for the success of this kind of AIGC narrative game platform. Hidden Door is not the forerunner of this track. As early as 2019, a similar product AI Dungeon appeared. However, due to the limitations of AI technology, AI Dungeon has already experienced risks such as uncontrollable AIGC content and insufficient security.

Although the technology is not mature enough before, AIGC has brought new mechanisms and experiences to the interactive narration of the game, and helped the game narration, which used to emphasize single-player experience, to be more closely combined with social play, thus giving birth to a new business model, thus attracting companies such as Hidden Door to explore and invest in this direction.

　　　

Hidden Door：

AIGC narrative game platform to create multi-person creation and social space

Founded in 2020, Hidden Door is a graphical multiplayer game platform, which uses AI to help players build a complete game narrative. Players only need to give a general world view framework and story outline, and then AI can complete the filling of NPC, items and other content.

The platform can store the world and stories built by players and AI, and players can play the roles in these stories, have a 2D virtual image, and manipulate the characters to travel and take risks in the world by inputting natural language commands.

The platform will be tested this year, but its game threshold is not high, and the natural language texts given to AI are only simple sentences. The first users are aimed at children between 9 and 12 years old.

Hilary Mason, founder of Hidden Door, believes thatDuring the epidemic, "desktop role-playing games such as Dungeons and Dragons are more popular than ever, and storytelling has become a popular social activity in games such as Roblox and Minecraft."

At the same time, in the process of accompanying children to tell stories during the epidemic, she found that narration was a challenge for ordinary people. Hilary Mason was inspired by this and chose to use AI to help players to build more interesting game narratives.

Hilary Mason believes that the value of introducing AI is mainly reflected in the release of narrative creativity of players. "Players may be inspired by an idea, but they will find that it takes a lot of work to create stories around it."

In order to better understand the Hidden Door product, Hilary Mason compares the game experience of this product with the board game Dungeons and Dragons.The role of AI in the game is similar to that of DM(Dungeon Master) in Dungeon and Dungeon.

Dungeons and Dragons is a classic desktop role-playing game, which is regarded as the predecessor of electronic role-playing games. With a complete set of rules of the game, players play the role of adventurers to participate in the game, relying on paper and pen to record the values and equipment props of the role, telling the players their actions in oral language, and then deciding whether the action is successful by rolling the dice.

Because each game of Dungeons and Dragons is based on the existing complete world view and story, and the behavior of the characters is completely based on the player’s dictation, the game has a high degree of freedom, and the role of DM is to respond to the player’s behavior according to the rules of the game and the story.

For example, before cleaning up the monsters outside the city in the main plot, the player chooses to ask the help of the Lord in the city, while DM will play the role of the Lord, and decide to give the player more or less assistance according to whether the Lord is stingy in setting.

Back on the Hidden Door, AI plays the role of an auxiliary builder of plot and world view, and at the same time replaces the original role of DM, which can help players to free themselves from complex creation and rules and fully devote themselves to the game.

In other words, the creativity of the story comes from people, and AI is more like a helper. When the player is exploring the game, AI is responsible for perfecting the overall story structure, filling in the gaps in the world view and describing the details of the story. When players lack the ability of narrative rhythm, story tension and conflict management, they can also be supplemented by AI.

However, this also means that products like Hidden Door have high requirements for AI’s natural language ability and data processing ability.

Hilary Mason is a data scientist herself. She founded Fast Forward Labs, an AI research company. The company’s first research was about natural language generation. Matt Brandwein, another founder of the company, was the product leader of Cloudera, a data platform company, providing AI and data service support for companies such as eBay and Nokia.

　　　

AIGC narrative game platform technology and mode iteration direction;

More controllable and visual

In fact, Hidden Door can be regarded as the second generation AI narrative game platform, and a similar product named AI Dungeon appeared in 2019.

AI Dungeon is developed by Latitude, a startup company, and is based on the rules of the game similar to Dungeons and Dragons, but it is different from Hidden Door in the game mode. If Hidden Door is an "expansion" in the player’s mind, then AI Dungeon is a "continuation".

AI Dungeon is like a novel written by a player and AI. In the game, there are only words without any graphics. The player is responsible for inputting simple sentences to control the actions and dialogues of the characters, while AI is responsible for the subsequent plot development of the player’s text.

AI Dungeon’s text generation technology is completely based on the GPT model released by OpenAI. AI Dungeon attracted more than 100,000 players within a few months after the official version was launched in December 2019. To this end, OpenAI also provided a professional version for Latitude, and promoted it as a successful product of commercialization of GPT model.

GPT model has now developed to GPT-3, which has become an important technology of AI narration in many games. In the VR game "Modbox", there is already a test version that applies GPT-3 to NPC characters and can have a simple conversation with players.

However, this technology has not been installed in Modbox, because OpenAI has not been authorized to open GPT-3 in the game field on a large scale. One of the important reasons behind it is that GPT-3 still has certain limitations, and some disadvantages have been highlighted on AI Dungeon.

First, it is uncontrollable.. As an AI text generation technology, GPT-3 does not have a sense of morality, and there is no criterion for judging whether the generated text is suitable for players of all ages. In addition, under the game mode of AI Dungeon’s "continuation writing", AI can easily produce illegal and pornographic content under the deliberate guidance of players. This problem began to spread on a large scale in 2021 and caused a bad influence on AI Dungeon.

Second, there are stereotypes.The machine learning of GPT-3 is completely based on the information of the whole Internet, and is influenced by various stereotypes on the Internet. This problem of GPT-3 was publicly discussed at a seminar held by researchers from OpenAI and Stanford University in 2020, but no good solution has been found yet.

In order to solve the above two problems, AI Dungeon had to launch a new filtering system in May, 2021, but the mechanism of this system was extremely rude. In order to prevent child pornography, even the word "five years old" was once not allowed to appear in the game. Moreover, this system has also been pointed out that there is a problem of reading the information of the player’s equipment, and there is a risk of information leakage.

Hidden Door realized the limitations of GPT-3 model, and even published a blog post in official website to point out the problems of GPT-3.On the basis of the first generation AI narrative game platform AI Dungeon, we choose to iterate in the directions of natural language generation technology, game mode and game graphics.

First of all, based on the natural language generation technology accumulated by Hilary Mason in Fast Forward Labs, Hidden Door has developed a new narrative game engine, has an independent machine learning training model, and has set a safer content production standard.

Secondly, it is also the difference of the game mode mentioned above. Hidden Door expands according to the outline provided by the player, which is more controllable.

Finally, AI Dungeon is the expression form of pure words, while Hidden Door introduces the visualization form of 2D graphics generated by AI, which is more intuitive in presentation form.

How AIGC Remodels Interactive Narrative Games

Experience and business model

In recent years, the game has become an important scene where the concept of AIGC has landed, and it covers many dimensions from game development to player play.

Among them, from the current development stage of AI technology, AIGC is closely related to game narrative. It is mainly embodied in shaping a brand-new narrative experience in traditional 3A games, but when it falls into a broader category of interactive narrative, it will bring new inspiration to this category to open up social gameplay and business models.

In fact, as the open world becomes more and more complex, there may actually be thousands of NPCs in a world, but most of them are ordinary passers-by. Some games are trying to make every NPC play a role in the game narrative, and choose to introduce AIGC for this purpose, so as to make the stories of these NPCs intertwined.

For example, in 2021, Ubisoft released Watchdog: Legion, which is a game without a protagonist. Players can play any NPC in the game. Ubisoft, through the self-developed aLiVE group AI system, gives NPC in every city independent personality, ability, life, story and interpersonal relationship, and each NPC has high interactivity and coherence.

You saved an NPC’s life one day, and then that NPC’s friend may give you a helping hand. You see a pickpocket NPC at the gate of the subway station. After a while, you may see him running away after the police. Thanks to the diversity of NPC AI, each player often has a unique game narrative experience in Watchdog: Legion.

From the point of view that the interactive narrative of the game extends to the whole interactive narrative category, the emergence of AIGC narrative game platforms such as AI Dungeon and Hidden Door has actually opened up more social gameplay and business models for interactive narrative games.

Interactive narrative games have accumulated in the European and American markets for many years, especially in the European and American mobile game market, there have been head products such as Episode》《Choice that have developed for many years and have a stable audience. Among them, "Episode" has the best commercial performance and is stable in the top 60 of the best-selling list of iOS games in the United States. This category of track has even attracted China manufacturers to go to sea, such as "Chapters" launched by Chinese online, which ranks among the top 200 best-selling products.

Episode, as a representative old-fashioned product, provides a game platform for players to play and create interactive stories, mainly for young female users. The platform now has 150,000 stories, totaling more than 10 billion story views. In Episode, the story is mainly presented in the form of role dialogue, supplemented by simple CG and animation. Players can connect different stories by choosing different answers in each conversation.

However, the limitations of Episode are becoming more and more obvious. Its gameplay is completely a single story experience, and its social attributes are relatively weak. Players use the built-in UGC creation tools to share their own stories or discuss them on the built-in social network. In terms of business model, Episode takes the common form of free and in-house purchase. Players need to wait for several hours to unlock new chapters, otherwise they need to spend money to unlock them directly. In addition, special options and story lines in some stories also need to spend money to unlock them.

Products such as AI Dungeon have explored some new paths in interactivity, sociality and business model because of the addition of AI technology.

For example, in games such as Episode, the interactivity is reflected in the fact that players can enter different story branches according to different choices, but on the whole, the story is linear and fixed, which cannot support multi-person participation.

And "AI Dugeon" has developed an AI model to deal with multiple players through AI technology, which can give feedback on the interaction of different players. In the business model, AI Dungeon provides more advanced AI models as value-added services to players, such as smarter monster AI models. In the traditional RPG game, Krypton’s pet has a numerical advantage over the free player’s pet, but in AI Dungeon, it is characterized by higher intelligence and stronger interaction.

Of course, due to the immaturity of AI technology, players of "AI Dugeon" need to interact with AI in turn, which greatly slows down the overall game rhythm, and when there are too many people, data confusion often occurs, resulting in poor experience.

Therefore, it can be said that at present, the experience upper limit of this kind of AIGC narrative game platform is mainly determined by the AI technology level, and the more preferred productization idea can make up for the experience to some extent, which is also the exploration direction and operational space of Hidden Door as a new generation product.

EW-Entertainment

Recent Topics and Related Contents　 　

　　Gansu Baiyin cross-country marathon, 172 people participated and 21 people were killed. How did this "desperate" cross-country race, in which more than 10% of the contestants were killed, happen? Although the search and rescue has been announced to be over, it is undoubtedly difficult to put an end to this incident. Judging from the information released so far, there are still some questions to be solved.

　　Question 1: Why does the weather forecast fail to play an effective early warning role?

　　Some contestants said that the day before the competition, the weather was gloomy, so they consulted the locals. The other party said that it would be sunny after the wind passed, so they didn’t care. Kang Yongxue, director of the Jingtai County Meteorological Bureau, introduced that he provided an information report for the event."gale blue warning".

　　Song Ming, the head of a famous outdoor club in Gansu, said that extreme weather prediction is one of the prerequisites for large-scale sports events to deal with emergencies. The biggest mistake of this incident is that the operators did not correctly predict the early warning provided by the meteorological department.

　　Question 2: Is the track guarantee complete? Is the supply station set up reasonably?

　　Some contestants recalled that after the second punch point, the wind was so strong that they could only grasp the ground with both hands, and they were frozen and stiff, and it was useless to wrap up the insulation blanket until they fainted and lost consciousness. In this cross-country race, a list of equipment was made for the contestants, and warm equipment such as jackets was only used as a suggested option, but not as mandatory equipment.

　　Experts believe that for contestants who don’t bring relevant equipment, they will be caught off guard when they encounter extreme weather. According to the scheduled plan, the contestants arrive at the track supply station at night, and there are no other supply stations in the most dangerous place, which is unreasonable.

　　Question 3: Is it timely for the organizer to stop the competition?

　　Participants all said that they did not receive a notice from the organizer to stop the competition before they lost consciousness or were injured. At 12 o’clock on the 22nd, the contestants posted a distress message in the WeChat group, and the organizer stopped the competition at 14 o’clock.

　　Experts said that what is different from the usual marathon is that this marathon cross-country race is more extreme sports. There should be a plan to suspend or suspend this kind of competition in case of special weather.

　　Question 4: Is there an emergency rescue plan? Is the rescue capability enough?

　　The safety management and emergency rescue of extreme sports events must be highly valued, and relevant departments must strengthen the pre-competition review of rescue plans. Experts believe that from the rescue situation, the rescue guarantee can not arrive at the first time, which is also an important reason for the serious consequences of this event.

　　Sports events not only require athletes to be professional.

　　The professionalism of extreme sports events cannot be just the professionalism of athletes. In the silver incident, 21 people were killed, and there were many top professional athletes among the victims. This is very different from the sudden death of non-professional athletes in many previous marathons. Extreme sports events have a high threshold. Not only the participants need to have physical conditions, professional knowledge and training preparation suitable for the difficulty of the competition, but also have extremely high requirements for the professionalism of the organizers. For example, the meteorological system, first aid system, medical system and security system of the competition must be prepared and prepared in accordance with professional standards. These systems may be used without reserve, but they cannot be used without reserve. Once unprepared, it’s too late to regret.

　　In response to this incident, the State Sports General Administration held an emergency meeting last night, demanding that the risk assessment of sports events be strengthened in the safety management of major events, and that safety work plans and emergency plans be formulated in a targeted manner. It should be said that this requirement is a timely rectification of the barbaric growth of irregular competitions and events. The practice of only paying attention to setting high bonuses to attract athletes to participate in the competition, but unwilling to invest in the most important safety guarantee should be stopped. Only when we are stable can we achieve far-reaching goals, and only when we get rid of barbaric growth can we grow healthily.

In clinical psychological counseling, couples or couples often encounter the problem of separation. The more you consult these questions, the more you can find that there is a natural conflict between love and distance. If we don’t handle it carefully, the probability of love losing to distance is still quite large. Therefore, whether it is a couple in love or an old couple who have been married for many years, it is a problem that we need to face up to and pay attention to.

The following analysis and suggestions can also provide reference for the situation that the family cannot be taken care of for some reasons.

Whether it’s a couple in love or an old couple who have been married for many years, being away from home is a problem that we need to face up to and pay attention to; Image from the network)

Why distance

Have such a great influence on love?

Speaking of this question, I have to talk about three essential elements of perfect love: intimacy, passion and commitment. The three elements of love were put forward by Robert Robert Jeffrey Sternberg, a professor of psychology at Yale University. He pointed out that different stages and types of love can be interpreted as different combinations of these three elements. For example, with the development of two people’s romantic relationship, the focus of each component will change. For example, there will be more passion at first, but gradually, commitment will become more important. Robert Jeffrey Sternberg also found that the duration of a relationship based on a single factor is not as long as that based on two or three factors.

Three elements of love: intimacy, passion and commitment; The size of the triangle indicates the degree of admiration, and the larger the triangle, the higher the degree of admiration; Each horn represents a unique type of love; Different combinations form seven different types of love; Image from the network)

Usually, the intimate relationship with the longest persistence and the highest satisfaction is obtained by the efforts of both partners to maintain intimacy and enhance their sense of responsibility.

In a long-distance relationship, intimacy is easily affected. Sometimes what can be solved by a hug leads to misunderstandings and the accumulation of negative emotions because of the obstacles of emotional expression.

Coupled with the cumulative effect of different living environments and different social circles, over time, it is likely that two people will have less and less common language and it will become more and more difficult to understand each other.

What is even more frightening is that it will wear away trust. There are many uncertain factors for two people who live in different places for a long time, such as a message or phone call that can’t be answered in time, a photo taken with other members of the opposite sex, a lie that hides their whereabouts, and so on, which may lead to the collapse of trust.

Therefore, the lack of intimacy is the key reason why many long-distance relationships lose to distance and time.

Lack of intimacy is the key reason why many long-distance relationships lose to distance and time; Image from the network)

How to overcome the troubles in different places?

Then how can we overcome the unfavorable factors brought by different places and maintain a harmonious and long-lasting relationship? We suggest that couples or couples who are experiencing the test in different places need to do the following work:

First, learn to communicate deeply and build a building of trust.

The hardest part to deal with in different places is communication. Many people think that communication mainly depends on language, but in actual communication, the influence of language information is very small, accounting for only about 7%, and tone, facial expression and body account for 93%. Therefore, when two people communicate in different places, it is impossible to fully understand each other’s emotional state, even if it is a video, it lacks the participation of touch and smell, and it is impossible to achieve a comprehensive experience. Therefore, it is very important to improve the depth and efficiency of communication.

For communication in different places, we suggest that the big principle is "report every day, learn to share, and don’t have a cold war".

(The principle of communication in different places: report every day, learn to share, and never have a cold war; Image from the network)

Many couples in different places are busy at work, so it may be unrealistic to report from time to time, but it may become a burden to each other. However, it is necessary to give a brief report every day, especially for men. Before going to bed, they should briefly talk about their day’s situation and the next day’s arrangements, voice messages or short calls. With such a habit, mutual trust will be enhanced.

By sharing your own life, you can let each other know about your living environment and dynamics and enhance each other’s sense of security.

But no matter how good two people are, conflicts are inevitable. Quarrel is not terrible, but couples in different places should not use the cold war to deal with conflicts.

Second, strengthen the sense of ceremony, and farewell is better than marriage.

The preservation of two people’s love needs a sense of ceremony, and it is more urgent for both parties in different places to achieve the state of "a little farewell is better than a new marriage" by strengthening the sense of ceremony.

We can strengthen the sense of ritual in getting along from two aspects, one is to make rules, and the other is to create romance.

You can strengthen the sense of ritual in getting along in two ways: making rules and creating romance; Image from the network)

At the beginning of different places, it is necessary to make some rules to ensure the constant love interaction between two people. For example, talk every day, say good night to each other every day, and make regular video calls; Regarding communication, we must speak out if there are contradictions, instead of holding them in our hearts and fighting for the night; Regarding trust, no matter how busy you are, you should explain it in advance and share it briefly, and you must explain the unexpected situation afterwards. These agreements will subconsciously make us cherish our feelings and make the feelings in different places more stable.

In creating romance, many couples, especially girls, need to feel loved, so don’t ignore each other’s needs and set aside time to take care of her emotions and express their feelings. Properly expressing your thoughts and love for each other can make each other feel cared for. You can also often create some surprises for each other, such as writing a few love words to each other and singing a love song to each other. If you travel frequently, when you meet again, you should buy some carefully selected gifts for the other party, such as what the other party mentioned to you, to let the other party know that you are thinking about her at any time, so as to achieve the effect that parting is better than getting married.

Third, create romantic expectations and give full play to the power of commitment.

For a long-distance relationship, commitment is an important driving force for each other to overcome the current difficulties. If there is no expectation for the future, it is difficult for two people to resist the suffering of loneliness and missing. Therefore, when you are in a different place, you must increase the chances of meeting as much as possible, and before each separation, you can start to create the expectation of meeting next time, and try to be specific and look forward to it together. For example, "Let’s meet in a month, and I’ll cook you a big seafood dinner, so that you can taste my loving cooking skills.".

(When you are in a different place, you must increase the chances of meeting as much as possible, and before each separation, you can start to create the expectation of meeting next time, try to be specific and look forward to it together, but don’t break your promise; Image from the network)

Expectation can be divided into short-term goals and long-term goals.

Short-term goals can be aimed at mutual interests, such as traveling together, shopping together, climbing mountains together, watching movies together, etc. You can make a detailed plan, work together and implement it one by one, so that more connections can be built.

Don’t break your promise, if it doesn’t come true, and blame each other, the balance of your emotional savings account will be less and less.

The long-term goal is about the expectations of being together in the future. Couples in love can look forward to the wedding picture together, how romantic the wedding is, how exquisite the home decoration is, and how interesting the future life will be. For example, "When we get married in the future, we must raise a lovely kitten at home and have a particularly lovely child. I will take pictures of you, the kitten and the child, and I will be very happy when I think about it."

For married couples, how to solve the problem of separation between the two places is a very realistic topic. The other party may understand the needs of temporary career development, but if career development is always put above the needs of the other party, the probability of emotional problems is still very high if two people get together for a long time, so it is necessary to take care of how long to solve the problem in different places and how to make up for each other’s feelings, and give a promise to make the other party really feel at ease.

This paper is adapted from Intimate Relationship Management —— How to Deal with Conflicts in Intimate Relationship Rationally.

If you have other questions about marriage or physical and mental health, please feel free to give us feedback, and we will choose appropriate topics to answer questions on popular science.

Contribution/Publicity Department of Public Security Department

Editor/Seagull

Original title: "Better Police Body and Mind | How to Keep Love from Losing to Distance"

Read the original text

　　　　Yesterday (2nd) at 3pm, in the consultation room of Beijing Meteorological Bureau, all kinds of cloud pictures and data were constantly switched on the big screen, and several analysts told their forecast views one by one before going on stage. Since the beginning of winter, except for two small-scale snowfalls in the outer suburbs in December 2008, almost no snow has fallen in Beijing, which makes the Spring Festival in 2009 less of a landscape and adds a little disappointment to people who are looking forward to the snowy scene.

　　　　Tomorrow is beginning of spring, and the Lantern Festival will be held in a few days. Will there be a "timely snow" coming to Beijing? Why is it difficult to snow in Beijing this winter? Our reporter interviewed Sun Jisong, the chief forecaster of Beijing Meteorological Bureau, to dispel doubts and doubts about snow.

　　Northwest airflow sings "one-man show"

　　Cause a winter without snow

　　　　Cloudy and sunny-the sky over Beijing is still calm. According to the forecast of Beijing Meteorological Observatory, the weather will be mainly sunny to cloudy this week, and the highest temperature will reach 10 degrees Celsius. Tomorrow will be beginning of spring, and in the more than 100 days since October 24th last year, there have been only two snowfalls in Yanqing in the north and Pinggu in the northeast-December 10th and 23rd, 2008. In the urban area of Beijing, there is still no effective snowfall. Only sporadic snowflakes appeared on December 10 last year, but they were fleeting and the precipitation was only 0.1 mm.

　　　　"This year’s situation is rare, but it is also normal." Sun Jisong, chief forecaster of Beijing Meteorological Observatory, said that historically, the winter precipitation in Beijing has not been large, and the precipitation from December to February of the following year is usually about 10 mm, so it cannot be said that there is no precipitation in winter. Tracing back to history, the last winter with almost no precipitation was in 1970. However, since October 24, 2008, there has been no precipitation in the urban area this winter, which is really rare.

　　　　A report in Sun Jisong’s hand shows that water shortage is not confined to Beijing. This winter, droughts occurred in Hebei, Shanxi, Henan and other places. According to media reports, the current drought has a wide range and a long duration, which is basically rare for many years.

　　　　"It should be said that there is no direct connection between no snow and warm winter." The computer in the consultation room shows that daily maximum temperature in some urban areas of Beijing has exceeded 10 degrees Celsius in the past two days. However, Sun Jisong said that in addition to cold air, the formation of snowfall must have water vapor transportation and appropriate ground temperature, and several factors are indispensable. However, there is no snow this winter, and the main reason is water shortage-the water vapor transportation has been "broken".

　　　　Sun Jisong introduced that from the perspective of Beijing, water vapor mainly comes from two channels. One is the water vapor brought by the southwest warm and humid airflow from the south of the Yangtze River, especially the snowfall, which often has the characteristics of large snowfall and long snowfall time, and often becomes the "main force" factor of snowfall in Beijing; The other source of water vapor is the water vapor brought by the easterly airflow from the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea. However, due to its short transport length, its snowfall is characterized by a small amount of snow.

　　　　Since December last year, there have been four cold waves sweeping the city, but all of them are mainly cooled by strong winds. "This winter, the northwest wind is mainly prevalent in Beijing, which is not conducive to the transportation of these two streams of water vapor. However, the easterly wind or southwest wind formed occasionally through the change of atmospheric circulation has basically not formed this year, so the water vapor transportation has basically been broken. " Sun Jisong said that the Chibi-style "sudden change of the wind and cloud" is pitiful, and it has not been encountered once this winter, which can be said to be "reasonable and unexpected".

　　　　Investigate and dispel doubts

　　Four conjectures about "No Snow"

　　　　Conjecture 1

　　Is it possible to snow on the fifteenth day of the first month?

　　　　On the sixth day of the Lunar New Year’s Eve, in a ski resort in Mentougou, Mona Lee skated with several friends. The only thing that made him regret was that the mountains beside the ski resort were bare. "I can’t even take a picture of Zhang Xuejing. There is no snow outside the slide. It is artificial at first glance."

　　　　In many people’s minds, snow and Chinese New Year are inseparable. If there are no snowflakes, the taste of the year will be much less. In the snow-free winter, can we make up for everyone’s regrets at the Lantern Festival? Sun Jisong, chief forecaster of Beijing Meteorological Observatory, said that such a wish may be difficult to realize. From the analysis of the current data, it is unlikely that it will snow in the next ten days or so, that is, during the Lantern Festival.

　　　　"But we can’t say that there is no hope at all." Sun Jisong said that due to the rapid change of atmospheric circulation, there may be changes, but from the whole circulation background, it is difficult for water vapor in the south to reach Beijing. There may be a small amount of precipitation in central and southern Hebei and southwestern Shanxi. "But if snowfall wants to come to Beijing, I am afraid it is still difficult to achieve."

　　　　Conjecture 2

　　"Sequela" of Meteorological Intervention?

　　　　"More than a thousand rockets were fired at the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games to eliminate the rain. It won’t eliminate all the rain in a year, will it?" Some netizens questioned whether large-scale artificial intervention in the weather would have a "sequela" to the overall climate. For such a question, Sun Jisong said that in the face of nature, the intervention that human beings can do is extremely small and it is impossible to have an impact on long-term climate change. "In fact, every time it rains, we basically carry out precipitation enhancement operations." Sun Jisong said that due to the long-term drought in the northern region, basically every precipitation process throughout the year, the relevant departments will carry out precipitation enhancement operations, and the snowfall process is no exception. If there is snow, artificial "snow increase" measures will be taken. According to media reports, from February 1 ST to February 2 nd, the weather modification department of Luoyang City, Henan Province seized the opportunity of weak cold air crossing the border and successfully implemented artificial precipitation enhancement. "But only when there is water in the sky can we make it fall to the ground as much as possible."

　　　　Guess 3

　　Is the Three Gorges Project the Source of Extreme Weather?

　　　　In recent years, the term "extreme weather" has appeared more and more in public, and the coincidence of these extreme weather occurrences and the completion time of the Three Gorges Dam also makes many people suspect that the Three Gorges Dam is the source of extreme weather.

　　　　"The problem of the Three Gorges is a cliche, but from a scientific point of view, the statement that the Three Gorges caused extreme weather is unfounded." Climate change often involves thousands of kilometers in Fiona Fang. Compared with this climate background, Sun Jisong described the Three Gorges as a small "puddle", and it is difficult to have any impact on the overall climate if there is such a puddle.

　　　　"At present, most climatologists believe that global warming will cause an increase in extreme weather." With global warming, the frequency of extreme weather is increasing, but how global warming affects the appearance of extreme weather and what is the inevitable relationship between them is still an unsolved mystery.

　　　　Guess 4

　　Beijing this summer

　　Will there be a drought?

　　　　Is there a scientific truth behind the poetic folk proverbs, such as "Yun Zheyue on August 15th, the lights on the fifteenth day of the first month when it snows" and "It doesn’t snow when it’s cold, and the fields crack when it’s summer"?

　　　　"Folk proverbs are more similar to statistical induction, and some of them have some truth," Sun Jisong said. The predictions in folk proverbs are not necessarily correct, and winter drought does not mean that summer drought will continue. "The weather on a certain day is not necessarily related to the weather on a certain day in a few months."

　　　　"However, the lack of snowfall will increase the possibility of pests and diseases, which will have a negative impact on the growth of overwintering crops. From this perspective, it will indeed have a certain impact on agriculture if it does not snow in winter." Snow-free winter not only has less flavor, but also lack of snow can cause many problems. In an interview with the media, Pan Jiahua, director of the Urban Development and Environment Research Center of China Academy of Social Sciences, said that precipitation will make the living environment worse and seriously restrict social production. "Although warming in winter can shorten the heating time and reduce related expenses, its disadvantages still outweigh its advantages."

　　Investigation reminder

　　Watch out for colds when it’s dry and snowy.

　　　　During the Spring Festival, Dr. He, who works in a community hospital, was busy. Due to the dry air, the number of patients with sudden respiratory diseases suddenly increased during the Spring Festival. Every day, the hospital received dozens of patients who had infusion bottles, and the top three hospitals were crowded. Experts said that due to the low air humidity, some viruses are easy to reproduce and easily lead to a series of diseases. During the Spring Festival in Beijing Children’s Hospital, an average of nearly 5000 children came to see a doctor every day. On the first normal outpatient day after the festival, more than 4,000 outpatient visits were made in the morning alone. Among them, children with respiratory tract infection are the most.

　　　　"It doesn’t snow, which is very bad for human health." Doctors at Chaoyang Hospital in Beijing said that because of the dry air, people are prone to chapped lips, bleeding nostrils and itchy throat. When the air humidity is lower than 40%, the respiratory mucosa of the nose and lungs will be dehydrated and the elasticity will be reduced, making dust, bacteria, etc. easily attached to the mucosa, stimulating the throat and causing cough.

　　　　However, the spread of cold will be accelerated because of the accelerated reproduction of influenza virus in dry environment and its survival on floating dust. However, due to the failure of "wet deposition", urban air pollution will be serious and respiratory diseases such as asthma and pneumonia will be easily caused.

　　　　"The way to prevent diseases is a cliche, but many people always pay no attention." Experts say that opening windows regularly to ventilate and maintain indoor humidity will help prevent diseases. At the same time, we should try to avoid going to crowded areas. People with respiratory diseases should wear masks when going out.

　　　　Reporter Wu Nan

Editor: Gao Song

Today development zone

On January 21st, the 7th swimming competition of Qinhuangdao in 2024 was held in the Sports Center of Development Zone under the guidance of the Municipal Sports Federation and the Development Zone Federation of Trade Unions, sponsored by the Municipal Triathlon Association and the Municipal Swimming Association, and hosted by the Municipal Swimming and Diving Training Center and Qinhuangdao Tianqin Equipment Manufacturing Co., Ltd..

At 9 o’clock in the morning, the game officially began. After full warm-up, with the referee’s order, the athletes dived from the platform, gliding, swinging their arms and fetching water … Everyone was full of energy, and every movement was vigorous, racing against time and struggling hard. The vigorous posture of the "swimmers" attracted the audience to whistle and cheer.

The competition was divided into 10 groups, namely men’s and women’s 100m breaststroke and 200m freestyle, aged 18-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59 and 60-65, with a total of 150 participants. Each group will be admitted to the top six according to the results, and will be awarded with achievement certificates and bonuses.

It is understood that the purpose of this competition is to adhere to the socialized development direction of competitive sports, open the door to welcome all school-age athletes in the city to participate in the competition, fully mobilize the enthusiasm of social forces to participate in competitive sports, give play to the role of sports associations and social sports clubs, attract sports fans to participate in regular events, and build a platform for them to show themselves.

Original title: "[Today’s Development Zone]" Tianqin Cup "The 7th Swimming Competition of Qinhuangdao City started in the Development Zone in 2024"

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