The Shanghai Composite Index successfully stood at 3700 points.
On December 13, the three major indexes of A shares rose across the board. Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index opened higher and went higher, and broke through 3,700 points shortly after the opening in early trading. Although there was a short correction, as of the close of the morning, the Shanghai Composite Index successfully stood at 3,700 points.
It is worth mentioning that while A shares are rising across the board, northbound funds continue to "buy in buy buy" and "sweep goods" crazily. As of the close of the morning, the net inflow of northbound funds has exceeded 5 billion yuan, reaching 5.51 billion yuan.
Liu Wenbo, deputy general manager of Jinxin Futures and dean of the research institute, told The Paper: "It is mainly caused by the resonance of three factors: first, the worries about the epidemic in overseas markets have eased, second, the marginal repair of domestic production, and third, under the expectation of steady growth, the upward movement of weight sectors such as big consumption and big finance has driven the index to rebound."
Looking forward to the market outlook, Liu Wenbo believes that the index still has room for improvement under the favorable internal and external resonance.
The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3,700 points, and the three major indexes rose across the board.
Wind data shows that as of the close of the morning of December 13, the three major A-share indexes rose across the board.
Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1% to 3,702.88 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.10% to 15,277.41 points; The GEM index rose 0.96% to 3,500.11 points.
On the face of it, the media, building materials, petroleum and petrochemical, and public utilities all increased by more than 3% recently, up by 3.58%, 3.43%, 3.39%, and 3.35% respectively.At the same time, building decoration, food and beverage, communications and other sectors also increased significantly, rising by more than 2%, achieving 2.30%, 2.20% and 2.06% respectively.
Liu Wenbo believes that there are three main reasons for the Shanghai Composite Index to break through 3,700 points:First, from the perspective of the external market, concerns about the epidemic in overseas markets have eased recently, and the rise in the external equity market has boosted domestic market sentiment.
Second, the recent marginal repair of domestic production, the policy of "bottoming out+correcting deviation" has been continuously implemented, the macro-policy focus is still shifting to steady growth, the short-term policy pays more attention to the direction of "risk prevention" and "steady growth", and the real estate policy control policy tends to ease. At the same time, the good news that the domestic central bank lowered the RRR has been boosted, the Politburo meeting set the tone of "steady", and the monetary policy remained stable and loose. After the RRR cut, the central bank lowered the interest rates for supporting agriculture and supporting small loans, and relaxed expectations again.
Third, under the expectation of "steady growth", the trend of A-share consumption and big financial sectors was strong, and related sectors such as financial real estate rebounded significantly, driving the index to rebound.
Northbound funds continue to madly "sweep goods"
It is worth mentioning that, in the recent upward trend of A-share market, the net inflow trend of northbound funds is obvious. In the early morning of December 13th, the net purchase of northbound funds exceeded 5 billion yuan, reaching 5.51 billion yuan.
Since December, all northbound funds have realized net inflow. Among them, on December 9, the net inflow of northbound funds was 21.656 billion yuan, the second highest in a single day in history, second only to May 25, 2021.
At the same time, since 2015, northbound funds have only bought more than 20 billion yuan in a single day for three times, namely November 26, 2019, January 8, 2021 and May 25.
For the continuous net inflow of northbound funds, Liu Wenbo believes that there are two main reasons: "On the one hand, macro liquidity is still abundant, RMB assets are relatively attractive to foreign investors, and the optimism of northbound funds on A-shares has warmed up.""On the other hand, the RMB exchange rate is higher, and the overseas institutions’ demand for the allocation of domestic assets is increasing with the recent fluctuations in overseas markets." Liu Wenbo further pointed out.
Citic Securities pointed out that at present, the relative attractiveness of RMB assets is still very strong, and northbound funds are expected to maintain a sustained net inflow.
The new year’s market continues
Looking forward to the market outlook, Liu Wenbo believes that in the short term, the macro bias at home and abroad is bullish, and A shares still have room for improvement under the internal and external resonance effect.
However, Liu Wenbo also reminded investors that although there is a high probability that northbound capital will continue to maintain the trend of net inflow, which will help the A-share index to continue to break through, it will also increase the market style switch.
"In addition, the overseas epidemic and the disturbance of the stock market at the end of the year cannot be ignored." Liu Wenbo stressed.
CITIC Securities believes that the new year’s blue-chip market dominated by institutional funds is expected to last for several months. On the one hand, the central government’s policy of steady growth and the future policy synergy will promote the economic recovery to exceed expectations. On the other hand, intensive policy implementation and data disclosure will significantly boost market confidence, and ample market liquidity will support incremental capital relay.
CITIC Securities pointed out that the current market liquidity is extremely abundant, and the reallocation of domestic institutions and new year’s wealth management funds will form an incremental capital relay.
Guotai Junan Securities also pointed out that with the decrease of economic uncertainty, the downward risk assessment and the upward risk preference will drive the New Year’s market by going up one flight of stairs.
According to Xinhua News Agency on December 10th, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 8th to 10th. The meeting demanded that next year’s economic work should be steady and strive for progress. All localities and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro-economy, and all parties should actively introduce policies conducive to economic stability, and the policy force should be appropriately advanced.
(This article is from The Paper, please download the "The Paper" APP for more original information)
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