Although the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development dismissed the rumor of "New Deal on Housing Credit" on August 29, the divorce registration office of Shanghai Xuhui District Civil Affairs Bureau was still overcrowded on August 30.
China Economic Weekly reporter Lao Jiadi | Shanghai Report
(This article was published in China Economic Weekly, No.35, 2016)
Cai Yingnan sat on the steps outside the real estate trading center, pulled out two double happiness, and drank a few mouthfuls of iced tea, without paying any attention to the dusted ash falling on the hollow toe. This scene took place at 2 pm on August 29th. He has been buried in the long queue of agents and buyers for more than five hours, but it seems that it is his turn to go to the window to "pull the production adjustment" (referring to inquiring about the seller’s housing situation) and there are more than 40 numbers.
In the interval of taking a breath outside, Cai Yingnan kept checking the news. It is only two days before the rumor that Shanghai promulgated the new version of the regulation policy. It is rumored that the down payment and credit interest rate will be further tightened. Is it possible to give the buyers a heavy blow like "3.25 Shanghai Nine Articles"? "Will they be driven off the bus in advance" has become his biggest worry these days.
In the same team, Jaz Li’s anxiety is even worse. He had a divorce certificate just opened the day before in his pocket, and he had just had a second child. This divorce adventure purely to buy an extra suite made him a little uneasy.
Rumor has it that Shanghai will revise the detailed rules for examining the eligibility of both parties to buy a house after divorce, stipulating that the purchase will be restricted according to the real estate situation in the original marital status within one year after divorce, so Jaz Li, who plans to buy a house for a newborn baby, has to pinch the deadline for an emergency divorce.
More than two hours later, the two men saw the official rumor information from the Shanghai government almost at the same time. The news of the "Shanghai Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development" said that "the recent rumors about the new housing credit policy in the society have not been studied." However, the turmoil about the "house" can always easily stir up the hidden insecurity in the hearts of the magic people. The voice of the Municipal Housing Construction Committee has not only failed to extinguish the "ghost fire" in the Shanghai property market, but more people have questioned why the main body of rumors is not the financial supervision department.
On August 29th, under the background that the number of first-hand housing transactions exceeded 1,000 for several days in a row, the number of new houses signed in Shanghai reached 1,689, leaving behind the turnover of 1,360 sets the day before the release of "3.25 Shanghai Nine Articles", and the civil affairs bureaus in various districts even witnessed the spectacle of limited divorce. On August 30th, the number of new houses signed in Shanghai climbed to 2139.
It is difficult to distinguish between "rumors" and "predictions"
Once again, the Shanghai property market has interpreted a rumor about how short the time can be from quiet to popular support. On the weekend of August 20th and 21st, the total number of new houses in Shanghai in two days was only 911 sets, which was calm from the off-season before "Golden September and Silver 10". However, since the 25th, rumors about the upcoming upgrade of the "Shanghai Nine Articles" were like thunder, which directly stimulated the transactions of 918 sets and 990 sets on the 25th and 26th working days respectively. Because of "underestimating" the explosive power of the market turmoil, the registration system of the real estate trading center once again went down during the "March 25th market".
As rumors intensified, the number of transactions on the 27th, 28th and 29th exceeded 1,000, and the total number of new houses on the 27th and 28th weekends reached 2,955, more than three times that of the previous weekend. If you look at the situation in a week, the amount of days released by the weekly transaction is even larger than the total turnover of a month in the off-season.
The circle of friends was screened by various versions of "September 1 regulation and upgrade", which triggered the collective panic of buyers. "3.25 Shanghai Nine Articles" has been called "the strictest in the country" because it requires non-Shanghai residents to pay social security for five years and 70% down payment for the second home, and the upgraded version of the regulation is even more painful.
According to the version that is widely circulated on the Internet, "New Deal Version 2.0" includes such heavy information as "The minimum down payment for buyers who have no house or loan record under their names is 30%, and the interest rate is not preferential", "The minimum down payment for those who have no house under their names but have a history of mortgage loans is 50%, and the interest rate is 1.1 times the minimum" and "For buyers who have been divorced for less than one year, the purchase restriction and loan policy shall be handled according to the family situation before divorce".
"Every financial tuba is being forwarded, and each reading is 100,000+.Judging from the information in the comments, many people are ‘ 3·25’ After the sequela, some people even suddenly lost the qualification to buy a house. Now, as long as there is a little change in the regulatory policy, everyone is more inclined to be credible. " The head of an operating agency that manages dozens of financial WeChat official account told the reporter of China Economic Weekly.
An intriguing phenomenon is that on the 29th, after the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development refuted the rumor through the official micro "Shanghai Release", the online evaluation was polarized. Some people shouted that the sudden rumors of regulation and upgrading were just a trick for the intermediary and developers to jointly push the market, but many people expressed their cautious attitude of "sitting tight" to reporters.
"The content of the New Deal circulated on the Internet is mainly to tighten mortgages. If it is really just a rumor, I hope that the relevant financial departments can come out and speak out, which is more convincing." Amy, who used to borrow money to buy a house but sold it in the first half of the year, is planning to buy a house again. Whether the New Deal really "recognizes loans and houses" is of great importance to her.
"Although it is denied at present, it does not mean that there will be no new property market policy in the future. In August, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and seven ministries and commissions have banned down payment loans, and Shanghai will follow suit. Future policies will indeed focus on the review of fake divorce judgments, corporate purchases, and overseas purchases." Zhang Hongwei, director of real estate consulting of Tongce, analyzed the reporter like this.
The "divorce law" was staged in a concentrated way.
Marriage registration center limited number divorce
In this farce surrounding the rumor of buying a house urgently, the climax scene is "queuing for divorce". According to the notice posted by Shanghai residents on the Internet, the divorce registration office of Xuhui District Civil Affairs Bureau, which was supposed to get off work at 4: 30 on weekends, was forced to take temporary closure measures, because the number of people was too hot to meet the business reception capacity and closed the window to get the number.
Yangpu District Marriage Registration Center has implemented a divorce number limit, stipulating that only 50 divorce numbers will be registered in one day. According to the staff, there were more than 90 couples who registered for divorce on the weekend, more than twice as many as usual, and crazier than on the eve of "March 25". When they opened the door at 8: 30 in the morning, the number was already ranked at 70, and at least 130 people were lined up outside the door. This grand occasion can’t even be compared with the situation of "May 20" begging for a wedding.
"China Economic Weekly" reporter learned that there are differences in processing capacity between districts. Some districts can achieve divorce in the morning and buy a house in the afternoon, which is quite efficient, but some have to be ruthlessly spit out because they divorce on Friday and buy a house on Monday.
"Divorce for the house is nothing new, for example, rushing to get married and divorce during the relocation negotiations, generally ‘ Relocation group ’ They will flexibly consider housing difficulties, allocate more houses or distribute more cash, and naturally there are fake divorces and fake marriages. " A senior real estate agent told reporters.
It is reported that fake marriage and fake divorce are themselves the gray market of Shanghai property market, and the intermediary is an important link in this industrial chain, becoming an absurd "marriage broker". "Especially ‘ 3·25’ In the future, the down payment for buying a second suite will be increased from 40% to 70%, which is a difference of several million for a luxury house of 10 million. However, as long as the two parties agree to handle the divorce, one of them can get another place to buy the first suite. After buying it, you can remarry. " The above-mentioned real estate agent revealed to reporters that there was a luxury home opening before, and he had handled a "fake divorce" for five couples.
Another intermediary who focuses on Pudong’s luxury residential property told the reporter of China Economic Weekly that it is not unusual for couples to divorce for buying a house. Now it is popular to launch a divorce for the previous generation. "Some people are chasing after the new dish. In order to buy more sets, both parents have divorced and signed an agreement with their children to buy a house."
The new deal that has been circulated this time is a policy loophole that hits the "fake divorce", which has become the reason why many people hope to catch the last bus of "low-risk divorce" before the New Deal boots land.
The main force of luxury house volume
"China Economic Weekly" reporter noted that all kinds of data show that, just like the situation on the eve of "March 25th", the biggest driving force behind the sudden bursting of the Shanghai property market on the weekend of 27th and 28th is actually improved demand, so the sales of luxury houses have increased sharply. According to the data obtained by the reporter from Shanghai Chain Home Market Research Department, from August 22 to 28, 479 sets of high-end commercial housing with an area of 80,000 yuan/square meter or more were sold in Shanghai, a sharp increase from the previous week, with a total increase of 320 sets, which was nearly 3 to 4 times higher than the daily average of more than 100 sets.
This week, the main areas of high-end market transactions are still Zhabei, Pudong and Huangpu, with turnover exceeding 50 sets. The number of transactions in the three regions accounts for nearly 60% of the city’s high-end products, especially Zhabei and Pudong, with turnover far ahead of other regions. Zhabei continued to ferment because of the benefits of "New Jing ‘an", and sold as many as 137 luxury houses. Among them, a project in the Peng Pu plate is now signed, and a total of 82 apartment houses have been sold, with a total amount of 842 million yuan, with an average transaction price of 84,699 yuan/square meter and a single suite source price of about 10 million yuan; In addition, the average price in Pudong also exceeded 60,000 yuan/square meter, and the weekly sales of two high-end products with an average price of 70,000 yuan/square meter exceeded 70 sets.
"From the rumor content, because it involves divorce, second-home identification, etc., it has the greatest impact on mid-to-high-end projects, and such products are also the most nervous and panic spreads." Lu Wenxi, an analyst of Shanghai Zhongyuan real estate market, analyzed the reporter.
The disruption of luxury houses directly led to the surge in the average transaction price. Just when many people were still worried about Shanghai’s average price of "40,000", the data provided by Lu Wenxi showed that the average price of Shanghai’s property market had reached 44,000 yuan/square meter. From August 22 to 28, the transaction area of a commercial residential building in Zhou Xinjian was 556,000 square meters, an increase of 93% from the previous month, making it the second highest in Zhou Du’s transaction history. In addition, according to his calculation, 8639 sets of second-hand houses were sold in the city this week, an increase of 34% from the previous month.
On the other hand, the bursting of the Shanghai property market just stepped on the most sensitive acupuncture point in the market. "The last two weekends of each month would have been a little more popular, because the house sold by the sales office at the beginning of the month has to print six contracts after the whole online signing process, and it will be signed at the end of the month. At this time ‘ Add fuel to the fire ’ I want to light ‘ Golden September and Silver 10 ’ The peak season market, but what kind of trend in the second half of the year depends on how the follow-up control policies are updated. " The reporter heard this view from a property market observer.
The out-of-control logic of "less land and more people"
Why can a small rumor ignite the enthusiasm of Shanghai property buyers in a few hours? The reporter combed and found that after the introduction of "3 25 Shanghai Nine Articles", the price increase only converged in April, May and June, and many people who just needed it bought relatively suitable real estate during this period, but in July and August, it was undercurrent again because of the birth of two "super kings". One was the landlord of Hongkou Liangcheng with a floor price of 67,000 yuan/square meter, and the other was that the floor price exceeded 100,000 yuan.
In order to cool down the "land king effect", the Shanghai Land Exchange Center stopped a number of plots to be photographed like a sudden brake, but this move touched the market’s concern about the reduction of land supply in the future.
The data shows that 1— In July, Shanghai approved a total of 84,700 residential units listed on the market, but sold 109,400 units, supplying 1.87 million square meters of residential land, only equivalent to 27% of the land supply area last year. From August 22 to August 28, the new supply declined further in the week, which has been declining for two consecutive weeks. Since August, the supply-demand ratio has been as low as 0.15 last week, and it has been in a state of "demand exceeds supply" for 10 consecutive weeks.
Xiaobo Liu, a senior financial commentator, found that the peak of land supply in Shanghai was from 2004 to 2005, and it has shrunk to two-thirds of the peak. In the first half of 2016, Shanghai sold a total of 30 commercial plots, and the transaction area decreased by 61.75% year-on-year, a decrease of over 60%.
At the same time of "less land", "more people" has also become the psychological basis for the expectation of high fever in the property market. Shanghai has long proposed that the permanent population should be controlled within 25 million by 2020, and it will still be the red line by 2040, so there is less than one million room for population growth in the future. However, many people regard it as difficult to achieve the goal in this statistical report.
Tang Zilai, the chief planner of Tongji University Planning Institute, thinks that although the target of permanent residents is 25 million, the population that Shanghai can actually serve is definitely more than 25 million. "It also includes those who have lived for less than half a year, tourists, people who go to Shanghai for business and business activities, and even those who live in Kunshan, Huaqiao and other surrounding areas of Shanghai and work in Shanghai. Their transportation and energy services are also considered in the planning, that is,
Xiaobo Liu said that the real estate in Beishang Shenzhen is becoming financial assets, and it has become an important part of the asset allocation of high-net-worth people in China. If the population is rising and the housing supply is declining at the same time, the housing prices in Beishang Shenzhen may get out of control in the future.
It is worth mentioning that, taking Japan as an example, although Japan completed its urbanization very early, and the number of people in the country has decreased by 947,000 in the past five years, statistics show that the population in Tokyo is still rising, with an increase of 510,000 people in the past five years. At present, China’s urbanization is only in the middle of the game, and there is still a huge imbalance in the distribution of resources among regions, which also makes many buyers expect higher prices in the future.